Meadows Blog

George Taylor Forecast - Lots of Snow and Open by Thanksgiving

Early snow and a lot of it. That's a great winter forecast. Former State Climatologist and President of Applied Climate Services addressed the Oregon AMS chapter Wednesday evening. He shared his winter forecast which he says should be a good one for Mt. Hood Meadows.

Taylor found five "analog" years - past years that are tracking similarly to this year leading up to winter. Four of those five years saw snowfall totals substantially above average - 50% or more! The measurements are made at the Government Camp weather station at the 4,000 foot level. Snowfall totals are amplified at Meadows higher elevation (between 4500 - 7300 feet). 

Snowfall in analog years 

Taylor also notes those seasons started early, with openings by or before Thanksgiving. So this is great news for winter enthusiasts.

Taylor won't be presenting at the AMS "What will winter bring" meeting October 26 at OMSI. But several other noted climatologists will make their presentations with the benefit of one more month's worth of weather data. That's an event we are definitely looking forward to!

2 Comments

  1. dan

    September 26, 2013

    I hope this forecast comes true, but given the extent to which weather patterns have changed in the last 20 years, I'm skeptical that any of the so-called "analog years" before 2007 are really accurate representations of what we might expect this winter.

    Meadows: Maybe. But we'd definitely take a repeat of 2007-08! The science of "Analog Year" forecasting will be on display at the winter weather forecasting event October 26 at OMSI. The forecasters usually score the accuracy of their previous year's forecast. Anyone interested in weather would enjoy the event.

  2. Bryce

    November 23, 2013

    Do you think you guys will be open on thanksgiving?

    Meadows: Our intention is to be open during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. But it really depends on the weather between now and then. We'll know better by Tuesday (or at the latest Wednesday) what our holiday weekend schedule will be.

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