Winter Forecast A Good One for Skiers and Snowboarders (with Video Podcast)
The Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society held its 16th Annual Winter Weather Meeting Friday at OMSI. This is the event where meteorologists and climatologists predict what the winter will bring to the Northwest. And there is great news for skiers and snowboarders. Play the video to listen to the experts share their winter forecast.
The experts examine the patterns of current data and indicators to create analogs – to find winters in the past that shared these characteristics going into this winter. They then review those winters and predict when the cold weather should arrive, whether the season generally will be above or below average in temperature and precipitation, and take a guess at any extraordinary weather events which may occur. There is a lot of educated guessing, but it’s all based on science.
Steve Todd, the Meteorologist In Charge for the National Weather Service in Portland says strong La Nina conditions last season produced a record breaker in terms of snowfall on Mt. Hood – Meadows accumulated 780 inches from October through May. Going into this winter the ocean temperatures are dropping again, moving from neutral to weak La Nina. La Nina is defined as unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. La Ninas historically produce winters with above average snow pack in the mountains and more consistent snowfall throughout the winter season.
Kyle Dittmer is a Hydrologist – Meterologist for the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. He says this will be a great winter for salmon and snow sliders. He predicts a “wild” opening to the season with a heavy blast in November and above average snowpack this winter. Kyle also speculates that we could have our first back-to-back La Nina winters since the 1970s and that “we’re way overdue.”
Pete Parsons Meteorologist for the Oregon Department of Agriculture says the years that have had a similar tropical ocean temperatures to this year saw above average snowpack in the mountains. Pete also predicts a big start to the season with significant mountain storms opening Mt. Hood Meadows before Thanksgiving.
George Taylor, retired State Climatologist and Founder of Applied Climate Services also sees an early start in November this year for the ski season which should have an above average snowpack in the mountains. He also sees a long-range cycle of Pacific Ocean cooling which he believes will produce above average snowpack for our mountain for the next 15 to 20 years!
For more details you can download the individual presentations from the AMS website.
The expert consensus is a strong early (pre-Thanksgiving) opening to the season which will have above average snowpack. What more could we ask for?
So now that you’ve heard from the experts, what do you think will happen this winter? Let’s have some fun here – take a guess on the following:
What day will Meadows open for the season, and what will the snowpack measured at the telemetry at the bottom of Mt. Hood Express be?
How much snow do you think we’ll get total this season at Meadows – remembering that we set a record of 780 inches last year, well above our average of 430 inches.
We look forward to hearing from you, and, based on what the expert forecasters say, we will see you on the mountain soon!
Meadows Team